GM Play

I have been playing GM for a number of times for the past few months - going in and out of positions. Technically, GM had broke new 52-week high and had been on an uptrend since April 2006. Its uptrend had been quite predictable within a channel (a rally followed by a a good pullback within a range). Lately, I have also been following the news about its possible alliance with Nissan/Renault and the sentiments that its Chairman Rick Wagoner has against the alliance.

03-Oct-06 08:34 ET Briefing.com
General Motors board faces key decision on alliance - Detnews.com (33.50 ) -Update : Detnews.com reports all eyes are on the General Motors board today as directors evaluate the widely different analyses of a blockbuster alliance of GM, Renault and Nissan Motor (NSANY). ........ GM declined comment Monday on the agenda for today's meeting of the 12-member GM board headed by Chairman Rick Wagoner. But people close to the co said Wagoner is certain to report on last week's summit meeting with Renault-Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn in Paris -- and possibly present GM's recommendation against the deal. People familiar with the matter say Ghosn is interested in Renault and Nissan each buying a 10% stake in GM, with GM purchasing a similar stake in the French and Japanese cos. However, GM insiders say that the automaker can't afford to spend its precious capital on stock in Renault and Nissan.

Received further news about GM on the same day.

03-Oct-06 08:44 ET Briefing.com
Newspaper Notable Mentions : FT: Nissan Motor (NSANY) wants to conclude talks on a possible tie-up with General Motors (GM) and Renault by mid-October, despite recent suggestions that the three auto giants should extend a 90-day study of their proposed alliance beyond that...

Since then, I have been on the look out for more news. Futhermore, CNBC reported that the Board is convening a meeting to discuss the proposed alliance. To me, that is strange since they have until mid Oct to decide.

On 4th Oct, Bear Stearns upgraded GM to Peer Perform from Underperform. Then the big news came:

04-Oct-06 11:46 ET
Follow-up: WSJ says GM, Nissan-Renault alliance talks terminated, according to source (32.47 -0.94) -Update : Dow Jones reports the chief execs of General Motors and Nissan-Renault terminated talks about a possible globe-spanning alliance, according to a person familiar with the situation. In a phone call Wednesday morning, GM CEO Rick Wagoner and Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan Motor (NSANY) and Renault, decided that the two sides were too far apart on the value of the potential tie-up and decided to stop the high-stakes talks which had been underway for two months. The move comes ahead of the mid-October deadline the two sides had set for a decision. Behind the failed talks was GM's demand that Nissan-Renault pay GM a "control premium" if it bought 20% of GM's stock as part of the alliance, according to another person familiar with the matter. Wagoner told his board Tuesday that investment bankers advised GM to secure a 20% control premium because such an alliance -- while not technically control -- would prevent the Detroit automaker from making any other joint ventures.

I interpreted this as bad news for the stock. As such, I expect the price to drop. The stock was dropping when I bought its Nov 32.5 Put. (And I bought F Nov 8.0 Call as I expect the stock to gain from this news. It was mentioned before that it is willing to talk with Nissan-Renault should the talk with GM failed.) It however gained in price over the next two days. Intuitively, I know the stock will drop dramatically. I just do not know when.

{Prior to the Put Position, I played in-the-money Oct Bear Call Spread (30.0/35.00) playing on the pull-back and planning to close my position when the stock reverse again upwards. My mistake was that I did not stick to the plan. From a positive position, my Bear Call Spread turned negative. As it was more negative, I hang-on to it because the Oct options had about 3 weeks more before it expires. Anything is possible in 3 weeks. On hindsight, I should have stick to the plan and close my position when it was positive then. - eventhough Friday's move saved my position}

Then on Friday, 6 oct 06, I saw my GM chart started to move significantly in the direction that I expected (down). The bigger news came as I read from Briefing.com:

06-Oct-06 12:09 ET
Follow up: General Motors dislcoses Tracinda has decided not to pursue the acquisition of additional shares of GM common stock (31.84 -1.29) -Update : From Tracinda's SC 13D/A: "On October 4, 2006, General Motors abruptly announced the termination of discussions regarding its proposed alliance with Renault and Nissan prior to the expiration of the time period originally established for the initial evaluation of the alliance and without the General Motors Board of Directors obtaining an independent evaluation of the alliance. On October 6, 2006, Tracinda received a letter from Jerome B. York stating that Mr. York had resigned his position as a director of General Motors. The Filing Persons have decided not to pursue the acquisition of additional shares of General Motors common stock. The Filing Persons will continue to review their investment in General Motors and may determine, based on market and general economic conditions, the business affairs and financial condition of General Motors, the market price of its shares and other factors deemed relevant by the Filing Persons, to acquire or dispose of additional shares."

A lot more news about GM were released that day. While it is uncertain what Kirk Kerkorian (one of GM's major investor) might do next, the market is not willing to hang on to GM at that price. Two analysts interviewed by CNBC also agreed (normally one is bullish while another is bearish) that GM stock will go down further with one of them saying that the price could be around $26 - $28. I added more to my Put position. The stock ended $2.08 lower at $31.05.

We shall see what happens next on Monday. I would probably lock-in some of my profits.

- PersianCat04 (Millionaire-in-progress)